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The Road Map 2020 - The Fear To Fail

Updated: Apr 8, 2020

COVID-19 Research Paper on Coronavirus, Spanish Flue, business, and the US Society.

Coronavirus just changed everything, economic models, and market predictions...Although the US will be one of the most damaged by the coronavirus countries in the world, the freedom of speech and action, the liberal mentality of the nation, social resilience[1], massive economic resources, fear-to-fail, and the American Dream will make its impact. But it turns out that fear will be the significant commercial driver of the US going forward. We will discuss the types of fear that will make the US economy work like never before.

Fear is pushing boundaries, starting from the stock market to regulations and politics, the US mentality, health system [telemedicine], and social norms. Countries such as China and Russia are vertically integrated with colossally powerful governments that do not have to apply to fear factors. They often execute abusive military-style orders to control their population, and these styles sometimes work better in times of pandemic. However, in exchange, they have to restrict the freedom of speech, human rights, free-market economies, copyrights, allowing excessive corruption and other issues that become a massive disadvantage in the short and long run for the entire society, damaging everyone except governing elites.

But the US has a potent weapon against them, "the fear to fail," which pushed the government to issue a ginormous 2 trillion dollar saving plan, the same fear is pushed 327 millions of Americans to voluntary lockdown for 30 days quarantine. All this is a significant milestone for the formation of the future economic progress of the nation. During this quite long period, the coronavirus-effect will cause our society a collective trauma[2] that may be equal to the collective trauma caused by the 911 attack, which also strengthened the US nation and pushed the boundaries of the US government to the next levels.

We, at Exclusive PR Solutions, know that the US communities will be able to stay more resilient in the face of disaster even though the US may face longer than expected economic challenges. We see significant shifts in future economic and technological progress, and we know that three major industrial sectors will grow very well during the first six months. Other industries will increase once the second wave is over in the next 8-12. First is the e-communications, e-commerce, and data analytics; they already grow like never before. But in 8- 12 months, we expect to see a mind-blowing boom in industrial and technological construction. Why do we think so? Fear of globalized China-dependent economy is the answer.

So let’s better understand the current timeline based on the possible behavior of Covit-19. We are following the two waves pattern of the virus [Figure 1: x-% is not accurate, but they-model is applicable]. This scenario is a fact, as the "fear-based home isolation [already happened] consists of people staying home as a reaction to an epidemic crisis. Some of these people may be considered the "worried well." The news of increasing numbers of people becoming ill, or seeing friends and family fall sick, is a strong motivation to avoid potential infectious situations."[3] After April 30th, 2020, most likely, based on Trump's predictions, we may not see the quarantine extended. However, if it will, it will benefit a lot, as the longer the quarantine, the smaller is the second wave.

Secondly, we looked at different studies for economic patterns, including Spanish Flu during the period 1918–1919, to better understand what mechanisms frame our social structure.[4] Some people predicted significant economic impacts similar to the Spanish Flue during the COVID-19 pandemic. But we think it will be OK. The Spanish Flu was a highly contagious disease with identical to COVID-19 health effects. Spanish Flue was hitting people in a very similar to COVID-19 way, filling lungs with liquid. Though people with high immune systems suffered more, as the Spanish Flue did not many people with weaker immune systems. Historical data showed that "communities hit by the Spanish Flu during the period 1918–1919 were unable to form new retail cooperatives in the short and long run after the epidemic, but this effect was reduced over time and countered by civic capacity."[5] Researchers noted that one of the significant factors was the "social resilience after a disaster," and modern society is much more resilient compared to the 1919s. So we cannot assume similar levels of economic collapse, and we think the US economy will be skyrocketing once the pandemic is over. We know that the US communities will resist and will adapt to the COVID-19 epidemic much faster and better than other countries, in which economic development is significantly weaker. This means we will have an economic advantage. But what to do with China?

Big companies such as Ford, GE, Dyson, Tesla, etc., who have shifted from specific-product focused operations to ventilators will finally realize that this is a chance to produce many other products in the US and losing the dependence on Chinese manufacturing. At the same time, advanced robotics and enormous inflow of the capital will create the moving power for this mega-opportunity. Fear of future pandemics and dependence on China, like a magic glue, will unite American manufacturing, construction, and politics and will accelerate the next stages of economic development. The 2 trillion bill, which is already passed, already provides the necessary funding.

We are not afraid of self-driving cars and delivery robots anymore, because we are afraid of COVID-19 much more. So technology can save more lives during such pandemics, and the US government will go for it, they will speed up the development of policies and insurance that will boost the technology. Telemedicine is a good example. The human factor became a strategic pitfall and a roadblock for the US economy and manufacturing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Every company realized that there must be a plan B.

The COVID-19 showed that the US and other economies, such as India, with its exodus of population, heavily rely on the human factor. Therefore they are very vulnerable to events such as COVID-19 going forward. Pandemics will happen again, and we need to be ready. The economy and national security risk are associated with shut down of production, and it is much higher than the risk related to robotics. Unemployment and other human-related challenges will be mitigated. As a result, robotization in 2020-2021 will reach new levels.

Many points of view, including mentioned above, take into consideration that COVID-19 will extend to 2021. Therefore it will become imperative for companies' survival, in the case of next possible pandemic, to have a high level of robotization in manufacturing, handling, and transportation. "Robots and robotics which pose great advantages by working 24/7"[6] will also become a significant US advantage in the de-globalized manufacturing, transferring of made in China goods back to US manufacturer. Therefore a high level of robotization will bring a possibility of cheap manufacturing in the United States. 2020 will leave no option for legislators but to actively move forward and stimulate the development of innovative, self-sustainable, de-globalized US economy that can operate on a self-sustainable and modular scale. And we know that these sectors will need tons of marketing.

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